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The Olympics have said goodbye to Asia after a star-crossed run, and
it's unclear when they'll be back after the continent hosted four of the
last eight Games.
The earliest the Summer Games could return is 2036, and the favourite
could be the world's most populous country -- not China, as you might
expect, but India.
India's population is expected to overtake China's 1.4 billion in the
next decade, and it is lobbying for the western city of Ahmedabad to be
the host city for 2036, with events elsewhere, including New Delhi, the
capital.
"India is in a race for hosting 2036," Narinder Batra, president of the Indian Olympic Committee, told The Associated Press. He offered few other details.
In a show of support, the IOC has scheduled the annual meeting of its
full membership for next year in the western Indian metropolis of
Mumbai. It's a signal the courting has begun. Delivering the pitch:
Indian IOC member Nita Ambani, wife of Reliance Industries chairman
Mukesh Ambani.
As it did with China, the IOC can envision India as a new frontier
that will yield deep-pocketed sponsors, television rights deals and
generous government support.
Departing Asia means returning to familiar terrain: the Summer Games
in Paris in 2024, the 2026 Winter Games in Milan-Cortina, and the 2028
Summer Games in Los Angeles. Brisbane is also lined up for the 2032
Summer Olympics, a return to Australia 32 years after Sydney.
Brisbane is certain to add cricket to its sports menu and, of course,
it would stay in place for India, where the sport has the world's most
fervent following.
The Asia focus started with the 2008 Beijing Olympics, a grand
coming-out party that many hoped would change China. Instead, China used
the Games to change how it was viewed.
The Asia run enriched the IOC with lucrative billion-dollar
sponsorship deals with China's Alibaba and Japan's Toyota, put down
roots in the world's most populous continent and featured a return to
South Korea 30 years after the 1988 Seoul Olympics were credited with
helping to usher in democracy.
Asia has also generated consistently bad public relations for the
IOC. This includes a state-sponsored doping scandal from the 2014 Sochi
Winter Olympics that lingers and surfaced again with allegations in
Beijing against Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva.
There was IOC vote-buying linked to the award of the Tokyo Olympics,
which forced the resignation of the head of Japan's Olympic Committee,
Tsunekazu Takeda, and a diplomatic boycott of the just-finished Beijing
Games centered on human rights abuses that also dogged Beijing in 2008.
Add in the 2016 Games in Rio de Janeiro. This was another
non-traditional stop that caused problems. It saw the organising
committee face bankruptcy and Carlos Nuzman, the head of the committee,
convicted of corruption, money laundering and tax evasion. The former
IOC member is appealing.
"The IOC I think is viewed as a villain globally at this time, and
they have to do something to change their image," said Robert Baade, a
sports economist at Lake Forest College outside Chicago. "I'm not sure
that's going to happen any time soon." Baade is the co-author of Going for Gold: The Economics of the Olympics, a study that looks at the costs and benefits of the Games.
"It's these little things, the five-star hotels, the elitism, the
privilege that the IOC displays and its eurocentrism," Baade added.
Christophe Dubi, the Olympic Games' executive director, acknowledged
India has expressed strong interest, but declined to name other
countries that have. Several Chinese cities have been mentioned as
possibilities, along with Jakarta, Indonesia, Seoul and others.
"We have to respect that some are speaking confidentially to us
because the public authorities are not fully on board, or sometimes
governments are interested but it's not the right timing," Dubi said.
The IOC no longer runs a wide-open bidding process, instead selecting
cities in which it has interest—and vice versa. It puts the selection
in the hands of the IOC leadership rather than with IOC members. The
2036 host is unlikely to be picked until after the next IOC presidential
election in 2025.
The other return to Asia could come with the 2030 Winter Olympics,
where Sapporo, Japan, the 1972 Winter host, is probably the favourite.
Also in the mix could be Vancouver, Salt Lake City and a Spanish bid, perhaps from Barcelona.
The Japanese news agency Kyodo, citing unidentified sources, has
reported that Sapporo and the IOC are in talks and a decision could come
before the end of the year. The city has put the cost at $2.4 billion
to $2.6 billion.
The IOC owes Japan a favour after the one-year delay of the 2020
Olympics cost organizers an added $2 billion. Dubi would not confirm any
of this but said the IOC was lucky to have Japan and China organizing
the last two Olympics in the middle of the pandemic.
"I think we were very fortunate to have them as partners," Dubi said.
"I don't say that others could not have done it. But if you had to
pick two countries where it was always doable and where you wouldn't
have doubts that they could pull it off it's those two."